No. 129· Horz

Wright St.

Record 23-12Tempo 67.9Off 113.3Def 110.1

Adj. Efficiency Margin+3.20

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#129

3.20

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#97

113.3

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#197

110.1

Adjusted Tempo

#223

67.9

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#84

59.6

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#115

53.0%

TOV%

#161

16.5%

ORB%

#146

31.6%

FTR

#164

35.8%

🔮 Crystal Ball

5 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

33% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 113.3, D: 110.1

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:3.2

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:65.7%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #97, Def: #197

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:36.4%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.26

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:59.6

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:1.2%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

PASS

Value:0.5%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

PASS

Value:1.7%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:1.07

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-6.9

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:74.7%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Notable Upset Risk

AdjEM-to-seed is 2 spots better than seed — correctly or overseeded.

Underseeded (28%)56

Defense (27%)48

Possession (21%)56

Variance (14%)50

Resume (10%)53

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