No. 40· A10

VCU

Record 28-8Tempo 69.3Off 118.9Def 102.4

Adj. Efficiency Margin+16.47

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#40

16.47

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#45

118.9

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#46

102.4

Adjusted Tempo

#128

69.3

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#36

67.6

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#74

54.3%

TOV%

#63

15.0%

ORB%

#93

33.0%

FTR

#21

41.9%

🔮 Crystal Ball

6 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

40% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 118.9, D: 102.4

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:16.5

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

PASS

Value:77.8%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #45, Def: #46

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:36.3%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 1.35

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:67.6

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:5.7%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

PASS

Value:2.8%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

PASS

Value:3.5%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:9.85

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:3.4

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:73.6%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Elite Cinderella Threat

⚠ Seeded 1 spot worse than AdjEM suggests — underseeded!

Underseeded (28%)89

Defense (27%)84

Possession (21%)77

Variance (14%)66

Resume (10%)86

View full Cinderella Index →