No. 155· AE

UMBC

Record 24-9Tempo 67.0Off 110.5Def 109.1

Adj. Efficiency Margin+1.37

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#155

1.37

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#150

110.5

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#174

109.1

Adjusted Tempo

#271

67.0

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#52

64.2

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#140

52.2%

TOV%

#81

15.2%

ORB%

#343

24.6%

FTR

#254

32.3%

🔮 Crystal Ball

3 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

20% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 110.5, D: 109.1

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:1.4

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:72.7%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #150, Def: #174

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:36.1%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.11

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:64.2

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:0.6%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:-1.4%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

FAIL

Value:-3.2%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:5.52

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-5.9

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:76.0%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Notable Upset Risk

Seeded exactly where AdjEM expects.

Underseeded (28%)65

Defense (27%)42

Possession (21%)35

Variance (14%)65

Resume (10%)42

View full Cinderella Index →