No. 56· B12

UCF

Record 21-12Tempo 70.5Off 118.5Def 106.1

Adj. Efficiency Margin+12.38

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#56

12.38

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#47

118.5

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#101

106.1

Adjusted Tempo

#66

70.5

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#121

55.2

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#58

55.0%

TOV%

#75

15.1%

ORB%

#30

36.0%

FTR

#220

33.7%

🔮 Crystal Ball

5 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

33% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 118.5, D: 106.1

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:12.4

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:63.6%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #47, Def: #101

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:36.2%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 1.02

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:55.2

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:4.5%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

PASS

Value:1.8%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

PASS

Value:9.8%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:-0.22

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:1.6

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:72.9%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Elite Cinderella Threat

AdjEM-to-seed is 4 spots better than seed — correctly or overseeded.

Underseeded (28%)62

Defense (27%)66

Possession (21%)74

Variance (14%)38

Resume (10%)91

View full Cinderella Index →