No. 153· SB

Troy

Record 22-12Tempo 68.2Off 111.0Def 109.5

Adj. Efficiency Margin+1.48

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#153

1.48

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#140

111.0

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#181

109.5

Adjusted Tempo

#207

68.2

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#110

56.1

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#200

50.9%

TOV%

#226

17.4%

ORB%

#63

34.3%

FTR

#169

35.6%

🔮 Crystal Ball

4 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

27% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 111.0, D: 109.5

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:1.5

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:64.7%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #140, Def: #181

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:33.0%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.12

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:56.1

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:-0.2%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:-0.8%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

PASS

Value:2.6%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:4.87

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-6.7

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:74.2%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Notable Upset Risk

AdjEM-to-seed is 3 spots better than seed — correctly or overseeded.

Underseeded (28%)47

Defense (27%)52

Possession (21%)53

Variance (14%)66

Resume (10%)54

View full Cinderella Index →