No. 173· OVC

Tennessee St.

Record 23-10Tempo 71.2Off 110.5Def 110.3

Adj. Efficiency Margin+0.23

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#173

0.23

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#149

110.5

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#199

110.3

Adjusted Tempo

#35

71.2

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#139

54.1

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#240

50.0%

TOV%

#183

16.7%

ORB%

#96

33.0%

FTR

#263

31.8%

🔮 Crystal Ball

4 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

27% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 110.5, D: 110.3

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:0.2

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:69.7%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #149, Def: #199

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:33.3%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.01

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:54.1

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:-3.9%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

PASS

Value:1.9%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

PASS

Value:2.5%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

FAIL

Value:-8.97

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-5.5

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:76.0%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Moderate Risk

AdjEM-to-seed is 1 spot better than seed — correctly or overseeded.

Underseeded (28%)53

Defense (27%)46

Possession (21%)68

Variance (14%)17

Resume (10%)49

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