No. 158· MAAC

Siena

Record 23-12Tempo 65.6Off 108.8Def 107.7

Adj. Efficiency Margin+1.16

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#158

1.16

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#182

108.8

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#140

107.7

Adjusted Tempo

#329

65.6

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#81

60.2

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#236

50.1%

TOV%

#139

16.2%

ORB%

#198

30.2%

FTR

#240

32.8%

🔮 Crystal Ball

2 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

13% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 108.8, D: 107.7

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:1.2

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:65.7%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #182, Def: #140

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

FAIL

Value:30.6%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.09

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:60.2

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:-0.6%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:-0.2%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

FAIL

Value:-0.5%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:2.84

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-7.3

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:77.1%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Notable Upset Risk

Seeded exactly where AdjEM expects.

Underseeded (28%)65

Defense (27%)57

Possession (21%)49

Variance (14%)35

Resume (10%)42

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