No. 22· A10

Saint Louis

Record 29-6Tempo 71.3Off 121.6Def 100.9

Adj. Efficiency Margin+20.71

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#22

20.71

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#27

121.6

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#30

100.9

Adjusted Tempo

#31

71.3

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

81.7

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

59.9%

TOV%

#162

16.5%

ORB%

#155

31.4%

FTR

#226

33.3%

🔮 Crystal Ball

7 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

47% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 121.6, D: 100.9

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:20.7

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

PASS

Value:82.9%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #27, Def: #30

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:39.9%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 1.70

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

PASS

Value:81.7

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

PASS

Value:14.6%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:-0.4%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

PASS

Value:4.9%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:-2.29

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:3.0

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:74.1%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Elite Cinderella Threat

⚠ Seeded 3 spots worse than AdjEM suggests — underseeded!

Underseeded (28%)96

Defense (27%)83

Possession (21%)51

Variance (14%)65

Resume (10%)83

View full Cinderella Index →