No. 138· Ivy

Penn

Record 18-12Tempo 69.8Off 108.8Def 106.6

Adj. Efficiency Margin+2.17

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#138

2.17

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#183

108.8

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#121

106.6

Adjusted Tempo

#111

69.8

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#178

51.1

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#189

51.1%

TOV%

#164

16.5%

ORB%

#175

30.8%

FTR

#175

35.3%

🔮 Crystal Ball

2 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

13% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 108.8, D: 106.6

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:2.2

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:60.0%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #183, Def: #121

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:38.3%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.17

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:51.1

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:-0.2%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:0.0%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

FAIL

Value:-0.1%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:6.99

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-5.5

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

FAIL

Value:69.4%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Notable Upset Risk

AdjEM-to-seed is 2 spots better than seed — correctly or overseeded.

Underseeded (28%)54

Defense (27%)59

Possession (21%)52

Variance (14%)46

Resume (10%)68

View full Cinderella Index →