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No. 112· Sum
North Dakota St.
Record 27-8Tempo 68.6Off 111.3Def 106.6
Adj. Efficiency Margin+4.71
Core Metrics
Adjusted Efficiency Margin
#1124.71
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
#132111.3
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
#118106.6
Adjusted Tempo
#18068.6
Four Factor Performance
Four Factor Index (WZ100)
#46
64.8
Overall four-factor dominance score
eFG%
#15451.9%
TOV%
#12416.0%
ORB%
#15331.4%
FTR
#29530.4%
🔮 Crystal Ball
5 / 15
National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*
33% complete
*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.
Trapezoid of Excellence
FAIL
Value:Outside
Need:Inside trapezoid
Balanced Dominance
FAIL
Value:O: 111.3, D: 106.6
Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4
Title Favorite (AdjEM)
FAIL
Value:4.7
Need:≥ 30.5
Win Percentage
PASS
Value:77.1%
Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)
Elite Efficiency
FAIL
Value:Off: #132, Def: #118
Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45
3-Point %
PASS
Value:35.4%
Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)
Elite AdjEM
FAIL
Value:Z: 0.38
Need:Z ≥ 1.76
AP Poll Week 6
N/A
Value:N/A
Need:≤ 12
Four Factor Index
FAIL
Value:64.8
Need:≥ 77.8
eFG Margin
FAIL
Value:-0.9%
Need:≥ 7.5%
Turnover Edge
PASS
Value:2.5%
Need:≥ 0.4%
Rebounding Edge
PASS
Value:3.6%
Need:≥ 1.5%
FTR Margin
PASS
Value:1.71
Need:≥ -4.28
WAB (Wins Above Bubble)
FAIL
Value:-3.9
Need:> 5
Free Throw %
FAIL
Value:71.4%
Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)
🥿
Cinderella Index
Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.
62
Notable Upset Risk
AdjEM-to-seed is 2 spots better than seed — correctly or overseeded.
Underseeded (28%)59
Defense (27%)60
Possession (21%)70
Variance (14%)64
Resume (10%)53