No. 207· NEC

LIU

Record 24-11Tempo 68.3Off 106.5Def 108.9

Adj. Efficiency Margin-2.40

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#207

-2.40

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#227

106.5

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#170

108.9

Adjusted Tempo

#199

68.3

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#102

57.1

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#153

51.9%

TOV%

#342

19.8%

ORB%

#83

33.6%

FTR

#245

32.6%

🔮 Crystal Ball

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National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

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*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 106.5, D: 108.9

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:-2.4

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:68.6%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #227, Def: #170

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:35.8%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: -0.20

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:57.1

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:0.4%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:-1.8%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

FAIL

Value:0.1%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

FAIL

Value:-4.60

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-6.0

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

FAIL

Value:66.7%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Notable Upset Risk

Seeded exactly where AdjEM expects.

Underseeded (28%)55

Defense (27%)57

Possession (21%)48

Variance (14%)39

Resume (10%)44

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