No. 78· CAA

Hofstra

Record 24-11Tempo 66.0Off 113.8Def 104.5

Adj. Efficiency Margin+9.32

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#78

9.32

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#90

113.8

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#74

104.5

Adjusted Tempo

#321

66.0

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#71

61.8

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#162

51.7%

TOV%

#169

16.6%

ORB%

#64

34.3%

FTR

#217

33.8%

🔮 Crystal Ball

4 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

27% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 113.8, D: 104.5

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:9.3

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:68.6%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #90, Def: #74

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:37.1%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.76

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:61.8

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:4.7%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:-1.5%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

PASS

Value:4.0%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:-1.60

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-4.6

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:75.8%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Notable Upset Risk

AdjEM-to-seed is 3 spots better than seed — correctly or overseeded.

Underseeded (28%)62

Defense (27%)72

Possession (21%)49

Variance (14%)80

Resume (10%)68

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