No. 166· SC

Furman

Record 22-13Tempo 67.3Off 109.2Def 108.6

Adj. Efficiency Margin+0.62

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#166

0.62

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#175

109.2

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#159

108.6

Adjusted Tempo

#256

67.3

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#109

56.2

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#104

53.3%

TOV%

#308

18.6%

ORB%

#212

29.8%

FTR

#222

33.5%

🔮 Crystal Ball

2 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

13% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 109.2, D: 108.6

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:0.6

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:62.9%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #175, Def: #159

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:33.4%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.05

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:56.2

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:2.9%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:-4.0%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

FAIL

Value:-0.5%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:4.94

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-8.0

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

FAIL

Value:70.1%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Moderate Risk

AdjEM-to-seed is 1 spot better than seed — correctly or overseeded.

Underseeded (28%)54

Defense (27%)50

Possession (21%)21

Variance (14%)73

Resume (10%)46

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