No. 147· MWC

Fresno St.

Record 13-19Tempo 69.1Off 106.9Def 105.0

Adj. Efficiency Margin+1.83

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#147

1.83

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#220

106.9

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#86

105.0

Adjusted Tempo

#143

69.1

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#213

48.3

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#192

51.1%

TOV%

#235

17.5%

ORB%

#231

28.9%

FTR

#242

32.7%

🔮 Crystal Ball

3 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

20% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 106.9, D: 105.0

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:1.8

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:40.6%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #220, Def: #86

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

FAIL

Value:32.1%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.15

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:48.3

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:0.6%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

PASS

Value:1.0%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

FAIL

Value:-0.5%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:4.85

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-10.1

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

PASS

Value:75.1%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)