No. 100· WAC

Cal Baptist

Record 25-9Tempo 67.1Off 107.8Def 102.1

Adj. Efficiency Margin+5.74

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#100

5.74

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#203

107.8

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#42

102.1

Adjusted Tempo

#267

67.1

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#72

61.5

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#298

48.6%

TOV%

#210

17.1%

ORB%

#27

36.5%

FTR

#219

33.8%

🔮 Crystal Ball

4 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

27% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 107.8, D: 102.1

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:5.7

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

PASS

Value:73.5%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #203, Def: #42

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

PASS

Value:33.4%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: 0.47

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:61.5

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:1.7%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

FAIL

Value:-1.3%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

PASS

Value:10.2%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:-2.76

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-2.9

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

FAIL

Value:71.3%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)

🥿

Cinderella Index

Upset-potential score based on strength, defense, possession, variance & resume.

Notable Upset Risk

AdjEM-to-seed is 3 spots better than seed — correctly or overseeded.

Underseeded (28%)57

Defense (27%)79

Possession (21%)52

Variance (14%)38

Resume (10%)64

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