No. 280· MAC

Ball St.

Record 12-19Tempo 65.5Off 100.1Def 109.1

Adj. Efficiency Margin-9.04

Outlook↗

Core Metrics

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

#280

-9.04

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

#334

100.1

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#176

109.1

Adjusted Tempo

#330

65.5

Four Factor Performance

Four Factor Index (WZ100)

#281

39.8

Overall four-factor dominance score

eFG%

#345

46.4%

TOV%

#168

16.6%

ORB%

#305

26.6%

FTR

#255

32.2%

🔮 Crystal Ball

2 / 15

National Champion Checklist — 15 criteria based on historical championship winners*

13% complete

*The "UConn Rule": Four Factor criteria are calculated based on 19 of the last 21 National Champions, explicitly excluding the anomalous 2011 & 2014 UConn runs to ensure stricter, more accurate predictive thresholds.

Trapezoid of Excellence

FAIL

Value:Outside

Need:Inside trapezoid

Balanced Dominance

FAIL

Value:O: 100.1, D: 109.1

Need:(O ≥ 121.8 & D ≤ 101.7) or EM ≥ 30.4

Title Favorite (AdjEM)

FAIL

Value:-9.0

Need:≥ 30.5

Win Percentage

FAIL

Value:38.7%

Need:≥ 73.2% (Z ≥ 1.31)

Elite Efficiency

FAIL

Value:Off: #334, Def: #176

Need:Off ≤ 16, Def ≤ 45

3-Point %

FAIL

Value:31.4%

Need:≥ 32.5% (Z ≥ -0.52)

Elite AdjEM

FAIL

Value:Z: -0.75

Need:Z ≥ 1.76

AP Poll Week 6

N/A

Value:N/A

Need:≤ 12

Four Factor Index

FAIL

Value:39.8

Need:≥ 77.8

eFG Margin

FAIL

Value:-5.8%

Need:≥ 7.5%

Turnover Edge

PASS

Value:1.8%

Need:≥ 0.4%

Rebounding Edge

FAIL

Value:-5.7%

Need:≥ 1.5%

FTR Margin

PASS

Value:0.21

Need:≥ -4.28

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

FAIL

Value:-14.6

Need:> 5

Free Throw %

FAIL

Value:71.0%

Need:≥ 71.4% (Z ≥ -0.28)